2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ JAX – Week 17 2023
CAR
JAX
CAR
AWAY
0@26
JAX +26
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 71%Projected margin: 5.8
JAX
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
5.8
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 26. Off by 20.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -192 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
Adam Thielen
WR
231.0SEASON PPR
Chuba Hubbard
RB
182.5SEASON PPR
Bryce Young
QB
156.4SEASON PPR
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@JAXW1 2025 | CAR 10, JAX 26 | JAX | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES