Panthers vs Jaguars – Week 17 2023
CAR
JAX
CAR
AWAY
0@26
JAX BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 0, Jacksonville Jaguars 26.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 71%Our line: JAX -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -7.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.200Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.177 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.070 (21)
+0.023 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.036 (16)
37.6% (31)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 7.5. Actual: 26. Off by 18.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@JAXW1 2025 | CAR 10, JAX 26 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 7.5. The market has JAX at -3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, CAR 0, JAX 26. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -3.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 17, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.2, 4.2 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, CAR 10, JAX 26 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: CAR -0.200 against JAX -0.034.
