CAR @ JAX – Week 17 2023
CAR
JAX
CAR
AWAY
0@26
JAX BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 71%Our line: JAX -7.5
JAX
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.5
OUR LINE
-246
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.200Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.177Offense EPA / play-0.070
+0.023Defense EPA / play-0.036
37.6%Offense success %42.1%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 7.5. Actual: 26. Off by 18.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 |
| Our fair price | +246 | -246 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
Adam Thielen
WR
231.0 SEASON PPR
Chuba Hubbard
RB
182.5 SEASON PPR
Bryce Young
QB
156.4 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Bryce Young2877 yd · 11 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Chuba Hubbard902 yd · 5 TD
Miles Sanders432 yd · 1 TD
Bryce Young253 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Adam Thielen103 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
DJ Chark35 rec · 525 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@JAXW1 2025 | CAR 10, JAX 26 | JAX | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 7.5. The market has JAX at -3.5.
The model projects 42.2 combined points. The market total is 38.0.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, CAR 10, JAX 26 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: CAR -0.200 against JAX -0.034.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
