Lions vs Cowboys – Week 17 2023
DET
DAL
DET
AWAY
19@20
DAL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 19, Dallas Cowboys 20.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DET 50%Our line: DET +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DET +5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.093Net EPA / play+0.220
+0.064 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.106 (3)
-0.029 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.114 (4)
46.1% (6)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but DAL won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 1.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@DETW14 2025 | DAL 30, DET 44 | DET | W |
| DET@DALW6 2024 | DET 47, DAL 9 | DET | W |
| DET@DALW7 2022 | DET 6, DAL 24 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs DAL
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 0.0. The market has DET at +5.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DET 19, DAL 20. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at +5.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 17, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 7.1 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Detroit Lions, DAL 30, DET 44 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: DET +0.093 against DAL +0.220.
