2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ DAL – Week 6 2024
DET
DAL
DET
AWAY
47@9
DET +38
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DET 59%Projected margin: 0.2
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
0.2
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 0.2. Actual: 38. Off by 38.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 34.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -180 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
316.2SEASON PPR
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@DETW14 2025 | DAL 30, DET 44 | DET | W |
| DET@DALW17 2023 | DET 19, DAL 20 | DET | L |
| DET@DALW7 2022 | DET 6, DAL 24 | DAL | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES