DET @ DAL – Week 6 2024
DET
DAL
DET
AWAY
47@9
DET BY 38
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DET 59%Our line: DET -3.0
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-143
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.232Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.170Offense EPA / play-0.109
-0.062Defense EPA / play+0.083
50.1%Offense success %40.6%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 38. Off by 35.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 34.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -180 | +150 |
| Our fair price | -143 | +143 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9 SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5 SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
316.2 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4629 yd · 37 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1412 yd · 16 TD
D.Montgomery775 yd · 12 TD
C.Reynolds139 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown115 rec · 1263 yd · 12 TD
J.Williams58 rec · 1001 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@DETW14 2025 | DAL 30, DET 44 | DET | W |
| DET@DALW17 2023 | DET 19, DAL 20 | DET | L |
| DET@DALW7 2022 | DET 6, DAL 24 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 3.0. The market has DET at -3.5.
The model projects 44.9 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, DAL 30, DET 44 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.232 against DAL -0.192.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
