Lions vs Cowboys – Week 7 2022
DET
DAL
DET
AWAY
6@24
DAL BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 6, Dallas Cowboys 24.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Lions, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 72%Our line: DAL -8.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -8.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.006Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.072 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (11)
+0.078 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.097 (2)
45.6% (9)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 18. Off by 9.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@DETW14 2025 | DAL 30, DET 44 | DET | W |
| DET@DALW6 2024 | DET 47, DAL 9 | DET | W |
| DET@DALW17 2023 | DET 19, DAL 20 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 72% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 8.1. The market has DAL at -7.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, DET 6, DAL 24. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -7.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 7, the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 4.7 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DAL 30, DET 44 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: DET -0.006 against DAL +0.109.
