Buccaneers vs Panthers – Week 7 2022
TB
CAR
TB
AWAY
3@21
CAR BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3, Carolina Panthers 21.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 2 Panthers.
Model confidence: TB 77%Our line: TB -10.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -10.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.013Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (20)
-0.025 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
43.8% (20)Offense success %40.7% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but CAR won. Projected margin was 10.1, the model overestimated by 28.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4694 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Mike Evans77 rec · 1124 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CAR
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 10.1. The market has TB at -13.0.
Carolina Panthers won, TB 3, CAR 21. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -13.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 7, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 8.3 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CAR 14, TB 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -0.013 against CAR -0.037.
