2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ CAR – Week 7 2022
TB
CAR
TB
AWAY
3@21
CAR +18
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 77%Projected margin: -9.2
TB
PICK SIDE
-13.0
SPREAD
-9.2
PROJ MARGIN
-649
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but CAR won. Projected margin was 9.2 -- the model overestimated by 27.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -649 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -680 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
225.4SEASON PPR
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES