Steelers vs Dolphins – Week 7 2022
PIT
MIA
PIT
AWAY
10@16
MIA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 10, Miami Dolphins 16.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers, 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 58%Our line: MIA -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -2.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.012Net EPA / play+0.039
+0.012 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.047 (7)
+0.024 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (20)
45.1% (12)Offense success %44.5% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 6. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2404 yd · 7 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson86 rec · 882 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@PITW15 2025 | MIA 15, PIT 28 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 2.9. The market has MIA at -7.5.
Miami Dolphins won, PIT 10, MIA 16. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -7.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 7, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.8 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, MIA 15, PIT 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: PIT -0.012 against MIA +0.039.
