2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ MIA – Week 7 2022
PIT
MIA
PIT
AWAY
10@16
MIA +6
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 58%Projected margin: 1.8
MIA
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
1.8
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 1.8. Actual: 6. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -297 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
225.5SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
180.7SEASON PPR
George Pickens
WR
166.5SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@PITW15 2025 | MIA 15, PIT 28 | PIT | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES