2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ BAL – Week 7 2022
CLE
BAL
CLE
AWAY
20@23
BAL +3
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 60%Projected margin: 1.6
BAL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
1.6
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 1.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -282 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
281.4SEASON PPR
Amari Cooper
WR
246.0SEASON PPR
Jacoby Brissett
QB
168.6SEASON PPR
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES