2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ NE – Week 7 2022
CHI
NE
CHI
AWAY
33@14
CHI +19
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: NE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 72%Projected margin: 7.4
NE
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
7.4
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A+-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but CHI won. Projected margin was 7.4 -- the model overestimated by 26.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 28.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -392 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
147.3SEASON PPR
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CHIW10 2024 | NE 19, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES