Bears vs Patriots – Week 7 2022
CHI
NE
CHI
AWAY
33@14
CHI BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 33, New England Patriots 14.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: NE 72%Our line: NE -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -7.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.046 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.054 (24)
+0.118 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.089 (3)
40.5% (27)Offense success %40.9% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A+-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but CHI won. Projected margin was 7.7, the model overestimated by 26.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 28.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CHIW10 2024 | NE 19, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 72% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NE by 7.7. The market has NE at -9.5.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 33, NE 14. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -9.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 9.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 6.7 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 19, CHI 3 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: CHI -0.164 against NE +0.035.
