2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ CHI – Week 10 2024
NE
CHI
NE
AWAY
19@3
NE +16
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CHI 69%Projected margin: 5.5
CHI
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but NE won. Projected margin was 5.5 -- the model overestimated by 21.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -325 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
No noteworthy trends
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
R.Stevenson
RB
175.9SEASON PPR
D.Douglas
WR
147.7SEASON PPR
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@NEW7 2022 | CHI 33, NE 14 | NE | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES