Patriots vs Bears – Week 10 2024
NE
CHI
NE
AWAY
19@3
NE BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 19, Chicago Bears 3.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Patriots, 4 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 69%Our line: CHI -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.153Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.083 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.082 (26)
+0.070 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (14)
42.4% (19)Offense success %39.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but NE won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 22.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 6.8. The market has CHI at -6.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 19, CHI 3. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Chicago Bears at -6.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 10, the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 8.5 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 33, NE 14 in Week 7 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Chicago Bears: NE -0.153 against CHI -0.088.
