Lions vs Texans – Week 10 2024
DET
HOU
DET
AWAY
26@23
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 26, Houston Texans 23.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Lions, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: DET 63%Our line: DET -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.232Net EPA / play+0.015
+0.170 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.050 (22)
-0.062 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.065 (5)
50.1% (1)Offense success %38.8% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 4.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@DETW12 2020 | HOU 41, DET 25 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs HOU
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 4.5. The market has DET at -4.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 26, HOU 23. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -4.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 10, the Detroit Lions were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 4.1 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 41, DET 25 in Week 12 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.232 against HOU +0.015.
