DET @ HOU – Week 10 2024
DET
HOU
DET
AWAY
26@23
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: DET 63%Our line: DET -4.5
DET
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-170
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.232Net EPA / play+0.015
+0.170Offense EPA / play-0.050
-0.062Defense EPA / play-0.065
50.1%Offense success %38.8%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 4.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -230 | +190 |
| Our fair price | -170 | +170 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9 SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5 SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
316.2 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4629 yd · 37 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1412 yd · 16 TD
D.Montgomery775 yd · 12 TD
C.Reynolds139 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown115 rec · 1263 yd · 12 TD
J.Williams58 rec · 1001 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@DETW12 2020 | HOU 41, DET 25 | HOU | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 4.5. The market has DET at -4.5.
The model projects 44.9 combined points. The market total is 49.0.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 41, DET 25 in Week 12 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.232 against HOU +0.015.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
