2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ HOU – Week 10 2024
DET
HOU
DET
AWAY
26@23
DET +3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 63%Projected margin: -2.7
DET
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 2.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -230 | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
316.2SEASON PPR
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@DETW12 2020 | HOU 41, DET 25 | HOU | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES