2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ IND – Week 10 2024
BUF
IND
BUF
AWAY
30@20
BUF +10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 69%Projected margin: -5.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-5.0
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 10. Off by 5.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -230 | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
182.5SEASON PPR
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@BUFW11 2021 | IND 41, BUF 15 | BUF | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES