BUF @ IND – Week 10 2024
BUF
IND
BUF
AWAY
30@20
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 69%Our line: BUF -6.5
BUF
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.5
OUR LINE
-218
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.197Net EPA / play-0.061
+0.189Offense EPA / play-0.057
-0.009Defense EPA / play+0.004
47.5%Offense success %40.2%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 10. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -230 | +190 |
| Our fair price | -218 | +218 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3 SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7 SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
182.5 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3731 yd · 28 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1009 yd · 16 TD
J.Allen531 yd · 12 TD
R.Davis442 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir76 rec · 821 yd · 4 TD
K.Coleman29 rec · 556 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@BUFW11 2021 | IND 41, BUF 15 | BUF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.5. The market has BUF at -4.5.
The model projects 45.0 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 41, BUF 15 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against IND -0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
