Bills vs Colts – Week 10 2024
BUF
IND
BUF
AWAY
30@20
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 30, Indianapolis Colts 20.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: BUF 69%Our line: BUF -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.197Net EPA / play-0.061
+0.189 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (24)
-0.009 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (13)
47.5% (7)Offense success %40.2% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 10. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@BUFW11 2021 | IND 41, BUF 15 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs IND
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.5. The market has BUF at -4.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 30, IND 20. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -4.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 1.5 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 41, BUF 15 in Week 11 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against IND -0.061.
