2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ LA – Week 10 2024
MIA
LA
MIA
AWAY
23@15
MIA +8
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LA 69%Projected margin: 5.6
LA
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but MIA won. Projected margin was 5.6 -- the model overestimated by 13.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -142 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
No noteworthy trends
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
218.2SEASON PPR
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@MIAW8 2020 | LA 17, MIA 28 | LA | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES