Dolphins vs Rams – Week 10 2024
MIA
LA
MIA
AWAY
23@15
MIA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 23, Los Angeles Rams 15.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 2 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 69%Our line: LA -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -6.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.017Net EPA / play-0.030
-0.039 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.014 (16)
-0.022 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (25)
44.3% (15)Offense success %46.8% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but MIA won. Projected margin was 6.6, the model overestimated by 14.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 6.6. The market has LA at -2.5.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 23, LA 15. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -2.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 10, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 3.5 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Miami Dolphins, LA 17, MIA 28 in Week 8 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.017 against LA -0.030.
