Eagles vs Cowboys – Week 10 2024
PHI
DAL
PHI
AWAY
34@6
PHI BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 34, Dallas Cowboys 6.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cowboys.
Model confidence: PHI 65%Our line: PHI -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.212Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.114 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (29)
-0.098 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.083 (30)
45.3% (13)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 28. Off by 23.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
| DAL@PHIW9 2023 | DAL 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs DAL
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.0. The market has PHI at -7.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 34, DAL 6. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -7.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 10, the Dallas Cowboys were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, PHI 21, DAL 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.212 against DAL -0.192.
