2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ NO – Week 10 2024
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
17@20
NO +3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 65%Projected margin: -3.5
ATL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-3.5
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but NO won. Projected margin was 3.5 -- the model overestimated by 6.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -192 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
No noteworthy trends
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
341.7SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
280.8SEASON PPR
D.Mooney
WR
193.2SEASON PPR
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
| NO@ATLW12 2023 | NO 15, ATL 24 | NO | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES