Falcons vs Saints – Week 10 2024
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
17@20
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 17, New Orleans Saints 20.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 5 Saints.
Model confidence: ATL 65%Our line: ATL -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -5.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.027Net EPA / play-0.101
+0.034 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (25)
+0.061 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (24)
48.1% (5)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but NO won. Projected margin was 5.4, the model overestimated by 8.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NOW4 2026 | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NO
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 5.4. The market has ATL at -3.5.
New Orleans Saints won, ATL 17, NO 20. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -3.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 10, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 45, NO 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.027 against NO -0.101.
