NFC South · #19 NET EPA · 2025 SEASON
Atlanta Falcons
FOR 20-20 (50%)VS 40-21 (66%)ATS 13-26 (33%)353–401 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1
@
Pittsburgh SteelersSUN 1:00 PM
VIEW MATCHUP →@Pittsburgh SteelersKEY INSIGHTS
DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSISOn a 3-year upward trajectory, net EPA has improved every season since 2023.
Elite red zone efficiency, scores touchdowns on 84.2% of red zone trips.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2025 SEASON FINAL-0.018
NET EPA/PLAY
-0.021
OFF EPA/PLAY
-0.004
DEF EPA/PLAY
-0.013
PASS EPA/PLAY
-0.031
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2025 · 27 SEASONS-0.120
-0.248
-0.131
+0.083
-0.168
-0.016
+0.008
-0.028
-0.171
+0.040
+0.027
+0.112
+0.074
+0.116
-0.099
-0.070
-0.002
+0.135
+0.045
-0.013
-0.046
-0.042
-0.180
-0.075
-0.040
-0.027
-0.018
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| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -0.018 | -0.021 | -0.004 | 353 | 401 |
| 2024 | -0.027 | +0.034 | +0.061 | 389 | 423 |
| 2023 | -0.040 | -0.099 | -0.059 | 321 | 373 |
| 2022 | -0.075 | +0.005 | +0.080 | 365 | 386 |
| 2021 | -0.180 | -0.098 | +0.082 | 313 | 459 |
| 2020 | -0.042 | +0.021 | +0.063 | 396 | 414 |
| 2019 | -0.046 | +0.004 | +0.050 | 381 | 399 |
| 2018 | -0.013 | +0.072 | +0.085 | 414 | 423 |
| 2017 | +0.045 | +0.037 | -0.008 | 353 | 315 |
| 2016 | +0.135 | +0.189 | +0.054 | 540 | 406 |
| 2015 | -0.002 | -0.002 | +0.000 | 339 | 345 |
| 2014 | -0.070 | +0.009 | +0.079 | 381 | 417 |
| 2013 | -0.099 | -0.003 | +0.096 | 353 | 443 |
| 2012 | +0.116 | +0.084 | -0.032 | 419 | 299 |
| 2011 | +0.074 | +0.041 | -0.033 | 402 | 350 |
| 2010 | +0.112 | +0.055 | -0.057 | 414 | 288 |
| 2009 | +0.027 | +0.036 | +0.009 | 363 | 325 |
| 2008 | +0.040 | +0.060 | +0.020 | 391 | 325 |
| 2007 | -0.171 | -0.155 | +0.016 | 259 | 414 |
| 2006 | -0.028 | -0.051 | -0.023 | 292 | 328 |
| 2005 | +0.008 | -0.018 | -0.026 | 351 | 341 |
| 2004 | -0.016 | -0.044 | -0.028 | 340 | 337 |
| 2003 | -0.168 | -0.129 | +0.039 | 299 | 422 |
| 2002 | +0.083 | +0.025 | -0.058 | 402 | 314 |
| 2001 | -0.131 | -0.067 | +0.064 | 291 | 377 |
| 2000 | -0.248 | -0.228 | +0.021 | 252 | 413 |
| 1999 | -0.120 | -0.117 | +0.004 | 285 | 380 |
COACHING TENDENCIES
FULL RANKINGS →PASS RATE
55.1%
EARLY DOWN PASS
49.2%
SHOTGUN RATE
80.5%
NO HUDDLE
11.1%
4TH DOWN GO
21.7%
4TH DOWN CONV
50.0%
3RD DOWN CONV
33.7%
RED ZONE TD
84.2%
GOAL-TO-GO TD
92.3%
2-MIN DRILL EPA
+0.063
PTS/DRIVE
1.4
PLAYS/DRIVE
5.9
COACHING TREND
2020–2025 · 6 SEASONS| SEASON | PASS% | 4TH GO% | 3RD CONV% | RZ TD% | PTS/DRV | HALF ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.1% | 21.7% | 33.7% | 84.2% | 1.4 | -0.089 |
| 2024 | 54.9% | 26.7% | 39.6% | 79.0% | 1.7 | -0.169 |
| 2023 | 52.5% | 15.0% | 40.0% | 78.3% | 1.1 | -0.042 |
| 2022 | 45.0% | 16.4% | 42.5% | 70.0% | 1.4 | +0.060 |
| 2021 | 61.5% | 20.9% | 39.2% | 70.0% | 1.2 | -0.196 |
| 2020 | 62.8% | 22.4% | 44.1% | 81.0% | 1.7 | -0.123 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M.Penix | QB | 9 | 1,982 | 70 | — | 10 | 120.3 |
| B.Robinson | RB | 17 | — | 1,478 | 820 | 11 | 370.8 |
| T.Allgeier | RB | 17 | — | 514 | 96 | 8 | 123.0 |
| D.London | WR | 12 | — | — | 919 | 7 | 201.9 |
| D.Mooney | WR | 15 | — | — | 443 | 1 | 82.3 |
| D.Sills | WR | 12 | — | — | 191 | 2 | 49.1 |
| K.Pitts | TE | 17 | — | — | 928 | 5 | 210.8 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
23-27
46% WIN RATE
AWAY
18-33
35% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS20-20
PICKS FOR
50%
FOR ACCURACY
40-21
PICKS AGAINST
66%
AGAINST ACCURACY
101
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK ATL · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
7-16
30.4%
AWAY
6-10
37.5%
FAVORITE
12-23
34.3%
UNDERDOG
1-3
25.0%
A+ TIER
1-1
B TIER
4-18
C TIER
7-7
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR ATL · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | ATL @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 61% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | NO @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 68% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 67% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | ATL @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 64% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | ATL @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 68% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | DET @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | ATL @ MINSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W10 | KC @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 73% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W9 | CIN @ ATLSUN 9:30 AM | ATL | C | 65% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W7 | SF @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W6 | CHI @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 61% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W5 | BAL @ ATLSUN 8:20 PM | ATL | C | 64% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W4 | ATL @ NOMON 8:15 PM | ATL | C | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W3 | ATL @ GBTHU 8:15 PM | ATL | C | 59% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W2 | CAR @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W1 | ATL @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2025·W18 | NO @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 67% | NO 17–19 ATL | WIN |
| 2025·W17 | LAR @ ATLMON 8:15 PM | LAR | B | 71% | LAR 24–27 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W16 | ATL @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | ATL | B | 66% | ATL 26–19 ARI | WIN |
| 2025·W15 | ATL @ TBTHU 8:15 PM | TB | B | 68% | ATL 29–28 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W14 | SEA @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | SEA | B | 69% | SEA 37–9 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W13 | ATL @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 65% | ATL 24–27 NYJ | LOSS |
| 2025·W12 | ATL @ NOSUN 4:25 PM | ATL | C | 58% | ATL 24–10 NO | WIN |
| 2025·W11 | CAR @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | CAR | C | 59% | CAR 30–27 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W10 | ATL @ INDSUN 9:30 AM | IND | A | 72% | ATL 25–31 IND | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W9 | ATL @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | B | 65% | ATL 23–24 NE | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W8 | MIA @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 70% | MIA 34–10 ATL | LOSS |
| 2025·W7 | ATL @ SFSUN 8:20 PM | SF | C | 59% | ATL 10–20 SF | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W6 | BUF @ ATLMON 7:15 PM | BUF | B | 67% | BUF 14–24 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W4 | WAS @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 61% | WAS 27–34 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W3 | ATL @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 66% | ATL 0–30 CAR | LOSS |
| 2025·W2 | ATL @ MINSUN 8:20 PM | MIN | B | 68% | ATL 22–6 MIN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W1 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 66% | TB 23–20 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W18 | CAR @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | A+ | 75% | CAR 44–38 ATL | LOSS |
| 2024·W17 | ATL @ WASSUN 8:20 PM | WAS | B | 61% | ATL 24–30 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W16 | NYG @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | A+ | 74% | NYG 7–34 ATL | WIN |
| 2024·W15 | ATL @ LVMON 8:30 PM | ATL | B | 65% | ATL 15–9 LV | WIN |
| 2024·W14 | ATL @ MINSUN 1:00 PM | MIN | B | 68% | ATL 21–42 MIN | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W13 | LAC @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 63% | LAC 17–13 ATL | LOSS |
| 2024·W11 | ATL @ DENSUN 4:05 PM | ATL | C | 50% | ATL 6–38 DEN | LOSS |
| 2024·W10 | ATL @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 65% | ATL 17–20 NO | LOSS |
| 2024·W9 | DAL @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 64% | DAL 21–27 ATL | WIN |
| 2024·W8 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 61% | ATL 31–26 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W7 | SEA @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 65% | SEA 34–14 ATL | LOSS |
| 2024·W6 | ATL @ CARSUN 4:25 PM | ATL | A | 70% | ATL 38–20 CAR | WIN |
| 2024·W5 | TB @ ATLTHU 8:15 PM | ATL | C | 59% | TB 30–36 ATL | WIN |
| 2024·W4 | NO @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 65% | NO 24–26 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W3 | KC @ ATLSUN 8:20 PM | KC | B | 65% | KC 22–17 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W2 | ATL @ PHIMON 8:15 PM | PHI | B | 67% | ATL 22–21 PHI | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W1 | PIT @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | B | 65% | PIT 18–10 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W18 | ATL @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 66% | ATL 17–48 NO | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W17 | ATL @ CHISUN 1:00 PM | CHI | C | 57% | ATL 17–37 CHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W16 | IND @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 56% | IND 10–29 ATL | WIN |
| 2023·W15 | ATL @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 67% | ATL 7–9 CAR | LOSS |
| 2023·W14 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 62% | TB 29–25 ATL | LOSS |
| 2023·W13 | ATL @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 66% | ATL 13–8 NYJ | WIN |
| 2023·W12 | NO @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 60% | NO 15–24 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W10 | ATL @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | ATL | B | 68% | ATL 23–25 ARI | LOSS |
| 2023·W9 | MIN @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | MIN | B | 63% | MIN 31–28 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W8 | ATL @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 68% | ATL 23–28 TEN | LOSS |
| 2023·W7 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 67% | ATL 16–13 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W6 | WAS @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 67% | WAS 24–16 ATL | LOSS |
| 2023·W5 | HOU @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 59% | HOU 19–21 ATL | WIN |
| 2023·W4 | ATL @ JAXSUN 9:30 AM | JAX | B | 61% | ATL 7–23 JAX | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W3 | ATL @ DETSUN 1:00 PM | DET | B | 60% | ATL 6–20 DET | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W2 | GB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | GB | B | 64% | GB 24–25 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W1 | CAR @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 59% | CAR 10–24 ATL | WIN |
| 2022·W18 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 63% | TB 17–30 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W17 | ARI @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 62% | ARI 19–20 ATL | WIN |
| 2022·W16 | ATL @ BALSAT 1:00 PM | BAL | B | 66% | ATL 9–17 BAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W15 | ATL @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 58% | ATL 18–21 NO | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W13 | PIT @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 56% | PIT 19–16 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W12 | ATL @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 61% | ATL 13–19 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W11 | CHI @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 61% | CHI 24–27 ATL | WIN |
| 2022·W10 | ATL @ CARTHU 8:15 PM | ATL | B | 64% | ATL 15–25 CAR | LOSS |
| 2022·W9 | LAC @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | LAC | B | 59% | LAC 20–17 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W8 | CAR @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 64% | CAR 34–37 ATL | WIN |
| 2022·W7 | ATL @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | CIN | C | 58% | ATL 17–35 CIN | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W6 | SF @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | SF | B | 69% | SF 14–28 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W5 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 69% | ATL 15–21 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W4 | CLE @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | CLE | B | 64% | CLE 20–23 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W3 | ATL @ SEASUN 4:25 PM | SEA | B | 63% | ATL 27–23 SEA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W2 | ATL @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 66% | ATL 27–31 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W1 | NO @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 68% | NO 27–26 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W18 | NO @ ATLSUN 4:25 PM | NO | B | 57% | NO 30–20 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W17 | ATL @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 64% | ATL 15–29 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W16 | DET @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 56% | DET 16–20 ATL | WIN |
| 2021·W15 | ATL @ SFSUN 4:05 PM | SF | B | 57% | ATL 13–31 SF | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W14 | ATL @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | CAR | C | 51% | ATL 29–21 CAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W13 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 66% | TB 30–17 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W12 | ATL @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 54% | ATL 21–14 JAX | WIN |
| 2021·W11 | NE @ ATLTHU 8:20 PM | NE | B | 64% | NE 25–0 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W10 | ATL @ DALSUN 1:00 PM | DAL | B | 61% | ATL 3–43 DAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W9 | ATL @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | NO | A+ | 70% | ATL 27–25 NO | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W8 | CAR @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 56% | CAR 19–13 ATL | LOSS |
| 2021·W7 | ATL @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 50% | ATL 30–28 MIA | WIN |
| 2021·W5 | NYJ @ ATLSUN 9:30 AM | ATL | C | 53% | NYJ 20–27 ATL | WIN |
| 2021·W4 | WAS @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 55% | WAS 34–30 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W3 | ATL @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | NYG | B | 54% | ATL 17–14 NYG | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W2 | ATL @ TBSUN 4:05 PM | TB | S | 69% | ATL 25–48 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W1 | PHI @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 54% | PHI 32–6 ATL | LOSS |
| 2020·W17 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A | 66% | ATL 27–44 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W16 | ATL @ KCSUN 1:00 PM | KC | S | 73% | ATL 14–17 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W15 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 57% | TB 31–27 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W14 | ATL @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | ATL | C | 56% | ATL 17–20 LAC | LOSS |
| 2020·W13 | NO @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 62% | NO 21–16 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W12 | LV @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | LV | C | 54% | LV 6–43 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W11 | ATL @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | NO | A+ | 67% | ATL 9–24 NO | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W9 | DEN @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 50% | DEN 27–34 ATL | WIN |
| 2020·W8 | ATL @ CARTHU 8:20 PM | CAR | C | 52% | ATL 25–17 CAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W7 | DET @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 55% | DET 23–22 ATL | LOSS |
| 2020·W6 | ATL @ MINSUN 1:00 PM | MIN | B | 60% | ATL 40–23 MIN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W5 | CAR @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 53% | CAR 23–16 ATL | LOSS |
| 2020·W4 | ATL @ GBMON 9:00 PM | GB | A+ | 67% | ATL 16–30 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W3 | CHI @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | CHI | C | 54% | CHI 30–26 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W2 | ATL @ DALSUN 1:00 PM | DAL | C | 54% | ATL 39–40 DAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W1 | SEA @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | C | 51% | SEA 38–25 ATL | LOSS |