2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ NO – Week 9 2021
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
27@25
ATL +2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 70%Projected margin: 8.5
NO
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
8.5
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but ATL won. Projected margin was 8.5 -- the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -277 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES