Falcons vs Saints – Week 9 2021
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
27@25
ATL BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 27, New Orleans Saints 25.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 70%Our line: NO -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -7.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.180Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.098 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (24)
+0.082 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.109 (2)
40.4% (29)Offense success %40.6% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but ATL won. Projected margin was 7.1, the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NOW4 2026 | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 70% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 7.1. The market has NO at -7.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 27, NO 25. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -7.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 9, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.8, 5.8 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 45, NO 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New Orleans Saints: ATL -0.180 against NO +0.035.
