Texans vs Dolphins – Week 9 2021
HOU
MIA
HOU
AWAY
9@17
MIA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 9, Miami Dolphins 17.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans.
Model confidence: MIA 59%Our line: MIA -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -3.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.212Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.138 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (22)
+0.074 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.028 (10)
37.4% (32)Offense success %41.3% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 8. Off by 4.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills2664 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rex Burkhead427 yd · 3 TD
Mark Ingram294 yd · 1 TD
David Johnson228 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks90 rec · 1037 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@HOUW15 2024 | MIA 12, HOU 20 | HOU | W |
| HOU@MIAW12 2022 | HOU 15, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 3.1. The market has MIA at -4.0.
Miami Dolphins won, HOU 9, MIA 17. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -4.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 9, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 0.2 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, MIA 12, HOU 20 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: HOU -0.212 against MIA -0.031.
