HOU @ MIA – Week 9 2021
HOU
MIA
HOU
AWAY
9@17
MIA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 59%Our line: MIA -3.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-144
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.212Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.138Offense EPA / play-0.059
+0.074Defense EPA / play-0.028
37.4%Offense success %41.3%
48.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 8. Off by 4.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +166 | -185 |
| Our fair price | +144 | -144 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8 SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0 SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
104.3 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills2664 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rex Burkhead427 yd · 3 TD
Mark Ingram294 yd · 1 TD
David Johnson228 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks90 rec · 1037 yd · 6 TD
Nico Collins33 rec · 446 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@HOUW15 2024 | MIA 12, HOU 20 | HOU | W |
| HOU@MIAW12 2022 | HOU 15, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 3.1. The market has MIA at -4.0.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, MIA 12, HOU 20 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: HOU -0.212 against MIA -0.031.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
