2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ NYG – Week 9 2021
LV
NYG
LV
AWAY
16@23
NYG +7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 61%Projected margin: -3.3
LV
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-3.3
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but NYG won. Projected margin was 3.3 -- the model overestimated by 10.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -152 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
226.0SEASON PPR
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
167.5SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
148.6SEASON PPR
Devontae Booker
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@LVW17 2025 | NYG 34, LV 10 | NYG | W |
| NYG@LVW9 2023 | NYG 6, LV 30 | LV | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES