Raiders vs Giants – Week 9 2021
LV
NYG
LV
AWAY
16@23
NYG BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 16, New York Giants 23.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Giants.
Model confidence: LV 61%Our line: LV -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.019 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.161 (32)
+0.045 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.031 (23)
44.9% (13)Offense success %39.3% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but NYG won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 10.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4804 yd · 23 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
Hunter Renfrow103 rec · 1038 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@LVW17 2025 | NYG 34, LV 10 | NYG | W |
| NYG@LVW9 2023 | NYG 6, LV 30 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NYG
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 3.8. The market has LV at -3.0.
New York Giants won, LV 16, NYG 23. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -3.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 9, the New York Giants were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.5, 1.5 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, NYG 34, LV 10 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.064 against NYG -0.192.
