2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ KC – Week 9 2021
GB
KC
GB
AWAY
7@13
KC +6
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✓
Model confidence: GB 61%Projected margin: -2.5
GB
PICK SIDE
+7.0
SPREAD
-2.5
PROJ MARGIN
+274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but KC won. Projected margin was 2.5 -- the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +7.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +275 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
GB
Davante Adams
WR
344.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
333.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
229.0SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES