Packers vs Chiefs – Week 9 2021
GB
KC
GB
AWAY
7@13
KC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 7, Kansas City Chiefs 13.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Packers, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: GB 61%Our line: GB -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.127Net EPA / play+0.119
+0.134 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.144 (1)
+0.006 (16)Defense EPA / play+0.025 (20)
48.6% (3)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but KC won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs KC
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 3.8. The market has GB at +7.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, GB 7, KC 13. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +7.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 9, the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 0.5 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, KC 19, GB 27 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.127 against KC +0.119.
