Patriots vs Panthers – Week 9 2021
NE
CAR
NE
AWAY
24@6
NE BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 24, Carolina Panthers 6.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: NE 57%Our line: NE -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -2.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.135Net EPA / play-0.093
+0.069 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (30)
-0.066 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.044 (7)
48.4% (4)Offense success %40.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 2.3. Actual: 18. Off by 15.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs CAR
Our model takes New England Patriots at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 2.3. The market has NE at -3.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 24, CAR 6. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -3.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 3.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 6.3 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, CAR 13, NE 42 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.135 against CAR -0.093.
