Titans vs Rams – Week 9 2021
TEN
LA
TEN
AWAY
28@16
TEN BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 28, Los Angeles Rams 16.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans, 1 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 56%Our line: LA -1.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -1.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.102
+0.022 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (8)
-0.033 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (11)
44.6% (15)Offense success %46.4% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but TEN won. Projected margin was 1.9, the model overestimated by 13.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3734 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 1.9. The market has LA at -7.0.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 28, LA 16. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -7.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 9, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 6.5 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 33, TEN 19 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Rams: TEN +0.055 against LA +0.102.
