TEN @ LA – Week 9 2021
TEN
LA
TEN
AWAY
28@16
TEN BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 56%Our line: LA -1.9
LA
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.9
OUR LINE
-125
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.102
+0.022Offense EPA / play+0.077
-0.033Defense EPA / play-0.025
44.6%Offense success %46.4%
42.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but TEN won. Projected margin was 1.9, the model overestimated by 13.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +296 | -350 |
| Our fair price | +125 | -125 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-20%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
268.4 SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
193.3 SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
180.9 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3734 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry937 yd · 10 TD
D'Onta Foreman566 yd · 3 TD
Dontrell Hilliard350 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.J. Brown63 rec · 869 yd · 5 TD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine38 rec · 476 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 1.9. The market has LA at -7.0.
The model projects 47.0 combined points. The market total is 53.5.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 33, TEN 19 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Rams: TEN +0.055 against LA +0.102.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
