Chargers vs Eagles – Week 9 2021
LAC
PHI
LAC
AWAY
27@24
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 27, Philadelphia Eagles 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chargers, 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: LAC 53%Our line: LAC -1.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -1.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.095 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (10)
+0.033 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (17)
47.6% (6)Offense success %46.9% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 1.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@LACW14 2025 | PHI 19, LAC 22 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs PHI
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 1.1. The market has LAC at -1.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 27, PHI 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -1.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 9, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.7, 0.2 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, PHI 19, LAC 22 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.061 against PHI +0.059.
