NYJ @ IND – Week 9 2021
NYJ
IND
NYJ
AWAY
30@45
IND BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 69%Our line: IND -6.6
IND
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.6
OUR LINE
-221
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.220Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.092Offense EPA / play+0.051
+0.128Defense EPA / play+0.006
41.6%Offense success %44.3%
47.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 6.6. Actual: 15. Off by 8.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +410 | -509 |
| Our fair price | +221 | -221 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
81%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4 SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9 SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
138.2 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Michael Carter639 yd · 4 TD
Tevin Coleman356 yd · 0 TD
Ty Johnson238 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
Corey Davis34 rec · 492 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NYJW11 2024 | IND 28, NYJ 27 | IND | W |
| NYJ@INDW3 2020 | NYJ 7, IND 36 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project IND by 6.6. The market has IND at -10.5.
The model projects 45.0 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 28, NYJ 27 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: NYJ -0.220 against IND +0.045.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
