Jets vs Colts – Week 9 2021
NYJ
IND
NYJ
AWAY
30@45
IND BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 30, Indianapolis Colts 45.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Jets, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 69%Our line: IND -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -6.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.220Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.092 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.051 (13)
+0.128 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (15)
41.6% (23)Offense success %44.3% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 6.6. Actual: 15. Off by 8.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NYJW11 2024 | IND 28, NYJ 27 | IND | W |
| NYJ@INDW3 2020 | NYJ 7, IND 36 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project IND by 6.6. The market has IND at -10.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, NYJ 30, IND 45. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -10.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 9, the New York Jets were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 1.0 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 28, NYJ 27 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: NYJ -0.220 against IND +0.045.
