NYJ @ IND – Week 3 2020
NYJ
IND
NYJ
AWAY
7@36
IND BY 29
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 55%Our line: IND -1.7
IND
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-1.7
OUR LINE
-122
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.227Net EPA / play+0.109
-0.143Offense EPA / play+0.079
+0.084Defense EPA / play-0.030
40.2%Offense success %46.6%
46.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 29. Off by 27.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +491 | -630 |
| Our fair price | +122 | -122 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
55%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
84%
DIFFERENCE
-29%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NYJ
Jamison Crowder
WR
172.0 SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
134.0 SEASON PPR
Frank Gore
RB
100.2 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Sam Darnold2208 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Frank Gore653 yd · 2 TD
Ty Johnson254 yd · 1 TD
La'Mical Perine232 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Jamison Crowder59 rec · 699 yd · 6 TD
Breshad Perriman30 rec · 505 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NYJW11 2024 | IND 28, NYJ 27 | IND | W |
| NYJ@INDW9 2021 | NYJ 30, IND 45 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 1.7. The market has IND at -12.5.
The model projects 47.1 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 28, NYJ 27 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: NYJ -0.227 against IND +0.109.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
