2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ IND – Week 3 2020
NYJ
IND
NYJ
AWAY
7@36
IND +29
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 55%Projected margin: 0.6
IND
PICK SIDE
-12.5
SPREAD
0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 29. Off by 28.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -630 | Won · +$0.17 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NYJ
Jamison Crowder
WR
172.0SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
134.0SEASON PPR
Frank Gore
RB
100.2SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NYJW11 2024 | IND 28, NYJ 27 | IND | W |
| NYJ@INDW9 2021 | NYJ 30, IND 45 | IND | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES