2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ PIT – Week 3 2020
HOU
PIT
HOU
AWAY
21@28
PIT +7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PIT
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: PIT 58%Projected margin: 2.6
PIT
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
2.6
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 7. Off by 4.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -196 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9SEASON PPR
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@HOUW4 2023 | PIT 6, HOU 30 | PIT | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES