Texans vs Steelers – Week 3 2020
HOU
PIT
HOU
AWAY
21@28
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 21, Pittsburgh Steelers 28.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: PIT 58%Our line: PIT -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -2.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.071Net EPA / play+0.128
+0.099 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.010 (17)
+0.170 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (2)
47.6% (7)Offense success %43.2% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 2.7. Actual: 7. Off by 4.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0 SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Deshaun Watson4823 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
David Johnson691 yd · 6 TD
Deshaun Watson444 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson235 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks81 rec · 1150 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@HOUW4 2023 | PIT 6, HOU 30 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.7. The market has PIT at -4.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, HOU 21, PIT 28. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -4.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 4.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 0.1 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, PIT 6, HOU 30 in Week 4 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: HOU -0.071 against PIT +0.128.
