GB @ NO – Week 3 2020
GB
NO
GB
AWAY
37@30
GB BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: GB 50%Our line: GB +0.0
GB
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.196Net EPA / play+0.177
+0.219Offense EPA / play+0.093
+0.022Defense EPA / play-0.084
50.7%Offense success %47.6%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 7. Off by 7.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +154 | -172 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.65
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
38%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
GB
Aaron Rodgers
QB
383.3 SEASON PPR
Davante Adams
WR
358.4 SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
258.9 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
Aaron Rodgers4299 yd · 48 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Aaron Jones1104 yd · 9 TD
Jamaal Williams505 yd · 2 TD
AJ Dillon242 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Davante Adams115 rec · 1374 yd · 18 TD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling33 rec · 690 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@GBW16 2024 | NO 0, GB 34 | GB | W |
| NO@GBW3 2023 | NO 17, GB 18 | GB | W |
| GB@NOW1 2021 | GB 3, NO 38 | GB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 0.0. The market has GB at +3.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 52.0.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, NO 0, GB 34 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.196 against NO +0.177.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
