Saints vs Packers – Week 3 2023
NO
GB
NO
AWAY
17@18
GB BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 17, Green Bay Packers 18.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 60%Our line: GB -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.086Net EPA / play+0.056
-0.014 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (6)
-0.100 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (24)
42.1% (15)Offense success %44.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 3.4. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@GBW16 2024 | NO 0, GB 34 | GB | W |
| GB@NOW1 2021 | GB 3, NO 38 | GB | L |
| GB@NOW3 2020 | GB 37, NO 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 3.4. The market has GB at +1.5.
Green Bay Packers won, NO 17, GB 18. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 5.0 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, NO 0, GB 34 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against GB +0.056.
