2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ ARI – Week 3 2023
DAL
ARI
DAL
AWAY
16@28
ARI +12
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 80%Projected margin: -9.8
DAL
PICK SIDE
-11.5
SPREAD
-9.8
PROJ MARGIN
-523
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but ARI won. Projected margin was 9.8 -- the model overestimated by 21.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -523 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -650 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
403.2SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
342.8SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
222.6SEASON PPR
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@DALW9 2025 | ARI 27, DAL 17 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW17 2021 | ARI 25, DAL 22 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW6 2020 | ARI 38, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES