Cowboys vs Cardinals – Week 3 2023
DAL
ARI
DAL
AWAY
16@28
ARI BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 16, Arizona Cardinals 28.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 80% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: DAL 80%Our line: DAL -11.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -11.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -11.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.220Net EPA / play-0.157
+0.106 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.071 (22)
-0.114 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (32)
47.4% (3)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but ARI won. Projected margin was 11.5, the model overestimated by 23.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@DALW9 2025 | ARI 27, DAL 17 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW17 2021 | ARI 25, DAL 22 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW6 2020 | ARI 38, DAL 10 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs ARI
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 11.5. The market has DAL at -11.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, DAL 16, ARI 28. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 80% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -11.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 11.5 points.
In Week 3, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 2.4 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 27, DAL 17 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.220 against ARI -0.157.
