Cardinals vs Cowboys – Week 6 2020
ARI
DAL
ARI
AWAY
38@10
ARI BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 38, Dallas Cowboys 10.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: DAL 53%Our line: DAL -1.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -1.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.031Net EPA / play-0.098
+0.038 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (25)
+0.007 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.060 (20)
45.4% (18)Offense success %45.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but ARI won. Projected margin was 1.2, the model overestimated by 29.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
378.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
287.8 SEASON PPR
Kenyan Drake
RB
192.2 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3971 yd · 26 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Kenyan Drake955 yd · 10 TD
Kyler Murray819 yd · 11 TD
Chase Edmonds448 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins115 rec · 1407 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@DALW9 2025 | ARI 27, DAL 17 | DAL | L |
| DAL@ARIW3 2023 | DAL 16, ARI 28 | DAL | L |
| ARI@DALW17 2021 | ARI 25, DAL 22 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 1.2. The market has DAL at -1.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 38, DAL 10. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -1.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 6, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 9.3 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 27, DAL 17 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.031 against DAL -0.098.
