Broncos vs Patriots – Week 6 2020
DEN
NE
DEN
AWAY
18@12
DEN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 18, New England Patriots 12.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: NE 63%Our line: NE -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.147Net EPA / play-0.076
-0.104 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.004 (21)
+0.043 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.071 (22)
38.8% (32)Offense success %46.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A+-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but DEN won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3 SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Drew Lock2933 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Melvin Gordon986 yd · 9 TD
Phillip Lindsay502 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman170 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy52 rec · 856 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@DENW16 2023 | NE 26, DEN 23 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 63% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NE by 4.5. The market has NE at -7.0.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 18, NE 12. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 6, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 26, DEN 23 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New England Patriots: DEN -0.147 against NE -0.076.
