Packers vs Buccaneers – Week 6 2020
GB
TB
GB
AWAY
10@38
TB BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 10, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 58%Our line: GB -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -2.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.196Net EPA / play+0.170
+0.219 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.119 (6)
+0.022 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (6)
50.7% (1)Offense success %45.9% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but TB won. Projected margin was 2.7, the model overestimated by 30.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@TBW4 2026 | GB 17, TB 14 | GB | W |
| TB@GBW15 2023 | TB 34, GB 20 | GB | L |
| GB@TBW3 2022 | GB 14, TB 12 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs TB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 2.7. The market has GB at -3.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, GB 10, TB 38. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 6, the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 8.0 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 17, TB 14 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.196 against TB +0.170.
