2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ TB – Week 6 2020
GB
TB
GB
AWAY
10@38
TB +28
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 58%Projected margin: -2.4
GB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-2.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but TB won. Projected margin was 2.4 -- the model overestimated by 30.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -145 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
GB
Aaron Rodgers
QB
383.3SEASON PPR
Davante Adams
WR
358.4SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
258.9SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@GBW15 2023 | TB 34, GB 20 | GB | L |
| GB@TBW3 2022 | GB 14, TB 12 | TB | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES