Commanders vs Giants – Week 6 2020
WAS
NYG
WAS
AWAY
19@20
NYG BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 19, New York Giants 20.
Going in, our model had favored New York Giants at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: NYG 53%Our line: NYG -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NYG -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYG -0.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYG · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.023Net EPA / play-0.086
-0.067 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.056 (27)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.031 (16)
41.2% (29)Offense success %41.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYG by 0.8. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
202.2 SEASON PPR
J.D. McKissic
RB
191.4 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Alex Smith1582 yd · 6 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson795 yd · 11 TD
J.D. McKissic365 yd · 1 TD
Peyton Barber258 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin87 rec · 1118 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@WASW5 2026 | NYG 27, WAS 27 | NYG | P |
| WAS@NYGW15 2025 | WAS 29, NYG 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW1 2025 | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| WAS@NYGW9 2024 | WAS 27, NYG 22 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW2 2024 | NYG 18, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs NYG
Our model takes New York Giants at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NYG by 0.8. The market has NYG at -2.0.
New York Giants won, WAS 19, NYG 20. Our model had favored New York Giants at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New York Giants at -2.0, meaning the book expects New York Giants to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 6, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 2.0 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
They tied, NYG 27, WAS 27 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.023 against NYG -0.086.
