2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ BUF – Week 6 2020
KC
BUF
KC
AWAY
26@17
KC +9
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER C
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 54%Projected margin: -2.8
KC
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 9. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -230 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
312.8SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
396.1SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
328.6SEASON PPR
Cole Beasley
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW9 2025 | KC 21, BUF 28 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW11 2024 | KC 21, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW14 2023 | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC | L |
| BUF@KCW6 2022 | BUF 24, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW5 2021 | BUF 38, KC 20 | BUF | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES