Chiefs vs Bills – Week 6 2020
KC
BUF
KC
AWAY
26@17
KC BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 26, Buffalo Bills 17.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs, 1 Bills.
Model confidence: KC 54%Our line: KC -1.5
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -1.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.147
+0.184 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.164 (4)
+0.045 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (12)
50.1% (3)Offense success %50.2% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 1.5. Actual: 9. Off by 7.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW9 2025 | KC 21, BUF 28 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW11 2024 | KC 21, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW14 2023 | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC | L |
| BUF@KCW6 2022 | BUF 24, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW5 2021 | BUF 38, KC 20 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs BUF
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 1.5. The market has KC at -5.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 26, BUF 17. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -5.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 6, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 7.8 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2020 season, MON 5:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, KC 21, BUF 28 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: KC +0.138 against BUF +0.147.
