2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ PHI – Week 6 2020
BAL
PHI
BAL
AWAY
30@28
BAL +2
FINAL · WEEK 6
2020 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 67%Projected margin: -8.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
-8.9
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 8.9. Actual: 2. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -422 | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
183.0SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
170.1SEASON PPR
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@BALW13 2024 | PHI 24, BAL 19 | BAL | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES