2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ BAL – Week 13 2024
PHI
BAL
PHI
AWAY
24@19
PHI +5
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 62%Projected margin: 1.8
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.8
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PHI won. Projected margin was 1.8 -- the model overestimated by 6.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -162 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PHI
S.Barkley
RB
355.3SEASON PPR
J.Hurts
QB
315.1SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
216.9SEASON PPR
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PHIW6 2020 | BAL 30, PHI 28 | BAL | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES