Eagles vs Ravens – Week 13 2024
PHI
BAL
PHI
AWAY
24@19
PHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 24, Baltimore Ravens 19.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles, 3 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 62%Our line: BAL -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.212Net EPA / play+0.269
+0.114 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.218 (1)
-0.098 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
45.3% (13)Offense success %50.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PHI won. Projected margin was 4.1, the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PHIW6 2020 | BAL 30, PHI 28 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.1. The market has BAL at -3.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 24, BAL 19. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 13, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.4 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 30, PHI 28 in Week 6 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: PHI +0.212 against BAL +0.269.
