Titans vs Commanders – Week 13 2024
TEN
WAS
TEN
AWAY
19@42
WAS BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 19, Washington Commanders 42.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Titans, 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 70%Our line: WAS -7.3
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -7.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.146Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.116 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.139 (4)
+0.030 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (15)
39.9% (29)Offense success %48.5% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked WAS. Projected margin: 7.3. Actual: 23. Off by 15.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@WASW5 2022 | TEN 21, WAS 17 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project WAS by 7.3. The market has WAS at -6.0.
Washington Commanders won, TEN 19, WAS 42. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -6.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 13, the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 1.1 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 21, WAS 17 in Week 5 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: TEN -0.146 against WAS +0.128.
