Chargers vs Falcons – Week 13 2024
LAC
ATL
LAC
AWAY
17@13
LAC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 17, Atlanta Falcons 13.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chargers, 2 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 63%Our line: ATL -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.100Net EPA / play-0.027
+0.039 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (13)
-0.061 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.061 (27)
42.0% (20)Offense success %48.1% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but LAC won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@ATLW9 2022 | LAC 20, ATL 17 | LAC | W |
| ATL@LACW14 2020 | ATL 17, LAC 20 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 4.5. The market has ATL at +1.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 17, ATL 13. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at +1.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 13, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 1.2 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 20, ATL 17 in Week 9 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.100 against ATL -0.027.
