LAC @ ATL – Week 13 2024
LAC
ATL
LAC
AWAY
17@13
LAC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 63%Our line: ATL -4.5
ATL
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-171
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.100Net EPA / play-0.027
+0.039Offense EPA / play+0.034
-0.061Defense EPA / play+0.061
42.0%Offense success %48.1%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but LAC won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -118 | -102 |
| Our fair price | +171 | -171 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
48%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4 SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9 SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
191.8 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3870 yd · 23 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins905 yd · 9 TD
G.Edwards365 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert306 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey82 rec · 1149 yd · 7 TD
Q.Johnston55 rec · 711 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@ATLW9 2022 | LAC 20, ATL 17 | LAC | W |
| ATL@LACW14 2020 | ATL 17, LAC 20 | ATL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 4.5. The market has ATL at +1.0.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 20, ATL 17 in Week 9 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.100 against ATL -0.027.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
