Buccaneers vs Panthers – Week 13 2024
TB
CAR
TB
AWAY
26@23
TB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, Carolina Panthers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 2 Panthers.
Model confidence: TB 66%Our line: TB -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.115Net EPA / play-0.213
+0.130 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.053 (23)
+0.015 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.160 (32)
49.5% (3)Offense success %41.3% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 5.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
| CAR@TBW13 2023 | CAR 18, TB 21 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CAR
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 5.4. The market has TB at -6.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 26, CAR 23. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -6.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 13, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 0.2 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CAR 14, TB 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.115 against CAR -0.213.
