2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ CAR – Week 13 2024
TB
CAR
TB
AWAY
26@23
TB +3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 66%Projected margin: -3.2
TB
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
-3.2
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 3.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -290 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4SEASON PPR
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@TBW18 2025 | CAR 14, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
| CAR@TBW13 2023 | CAR 18, TB 21 | TB | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES