Bears vs Lions – Week 13 2024
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
20@23
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 20, Detroit Lions 23.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 3 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 80%Our line: DET -11.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -11.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.232
-0.082 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.170 (3)
+0.006 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (6)
39.9% (30)Offense success %50.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 11.6. Actual: 3. Off by 8.6 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 11.6. The market has DET at -9.5.
Detroit Lions won, CHI 20, DET 23. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -9.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 13, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 0.3 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, THU 12:30 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: CHI -0.088 against DET +0.232.
