CHI @ DET – Week 13 2024
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
20@23
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 80%Our line: DET -11.6
DET
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-11.6
OUR LINE
-413
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.232
-0.082Offense EPA / play+0.170
+0.006Defense EPA / play-0.062
39.9%Offense success %50.1%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 11.6. Actual: 3. Off by 8.6 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +390 | -520 |
| Our fair price | +413 | -413 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
80%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5 SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1 SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
214.5 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3541 yd · 20 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift959 yd · 6 TD
C.Williams489 yd · 0 TD
R.Johnson150 yd · 6 TD
RECEIVING
D.Moore98 rec · 966 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen70 rec · 744 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 11.6. The market has DET at -9.5.
The model projects 47.8 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, THU 12:30 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: CHI -0.088 against DET +0.232.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
