PIT @ CIN – Week 13 2024
PIT
CIN
PIT
AWAY
44@38
PIT BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 58%Our line: PIT -2.9
PIT
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.9
OUR LINE
-141
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.034Offense EPA / play+0.090
-0.018Defense EPA / play+0.037
40.4%Offense success %47.2%
44.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 6. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
COLD GAME
32°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 |
| Our fair price | -141 | +141 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
42%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
32°F
WIND
9 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6 SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8 SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
168.3 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
R.Wilson2482 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
N.Harris1043 yd · 6 TD
J.Warren511 yd · 1 TD
J.Fields289 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens59 rec · 900 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth65 rec · 653 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
| PIT@CINW12 2023 | PIT 16, CIN 10 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.9. The market has PIT at +3.0.
The model projects 44.1 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 12, PIT 34 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: PIT -0.016 against CIN +0.053.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
