Steelers vs Bengals – Week 13 2024
PIT
CIN
PIT
AWAY
44@38
PIT BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 44, Cincinnati Bengals 38.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: PIT 58%Our line: PIT -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -2.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.034 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.090 (7)
-0.018 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (22)
40.4% (27)Offense success %47.2% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 6. Off by 3.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
COLD GAME
32°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
32°F
WIND
9 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CIN
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.9. The market has PIT at +3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 44, CIN 38. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 13, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.1, 1.9 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: PIT -0.016 against CIN +0.053.
