2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ CIN – Week 7 2025
PIT
CIN
PIT
AWAY
31@33
CIN +2
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 61%Projected margin: -1.6
PIT
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-1.6
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CIN won. Projected margin was 1.6 -- the model overestimated by 3.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
| PIT@CINW12 2023 | PIT 16, CIN 10 | PIT | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES