Steelers vs Bengals – Week 7 2025
PIT
CIN
PIT
AWAY
31@33
CIN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 31, Cincinnati Bengals 33.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers, 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: PIT 61%Our line: PIT -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.007Net EPA / play-0.138
+0.025 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (19)
+0.018 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
44.0% (17)Offense success %45.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CIN won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 5.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW16 2023 | CIN 11, PIT 34 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CIN
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.9. The market has PIT at -5.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, PIT 31, CIN 33. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -5.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 7, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 0.9 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.007 against CIN -0.138.
