Eagles vs Vikings – Week 7 2025
PHI
MIN
PHI
AWAY
28@22
PHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 28, Minnesota Vikings 22.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles, 1 Vikings.
Model confidence: PHI 59%Our line: PHI -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.105Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.026 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (28)
-0.079 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (4)
43.1% (20)Offense success %42.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 3.2. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@PHIW2 2023 | MIN 28, PHI 34 | PHI | W |
| MIN@PHIW2 2022 | MIN 7, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs MIN
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.2. The market has PHI at -2.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 28, MIN 22. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -2.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 7, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 1.8 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, MIN 28, PHI 34 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against MIN -0.016.
