MIN @ PHI – Week 2 2022
MIN
PHI
MIN
AWAY
7@24
PHI BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 58%Our line: PHI -2.6
PHI
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.6
OUR LINE
-137
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.172
-0.011Offense EPA / play+0.107
+0.012Defense EPA / play-0.064
44.9%Offense success %48.3%
45.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 17. Off by 14.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +127 | -141 |
| Our fair price | +137 | -137 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
368.7 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
291.6 SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
237.8 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4547 yd · 29 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1173 yd · 8 TD
Alexander Mattison283 yd · 5 TD
Kirk Cousins97 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson128 rec · 1809 yd · 8 TD
Adam Thielen70 rec · 716 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@MINW7 2025 | PHI 28, MIN 22 | PHI | W |
| MIN@PHIW2 2023 | MIN 28, PHI 34 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 2.6. The market has PHI at -2.5.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, MON 8:30 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 28, MIN 22 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: MIN -0.023 against PHI +0.172.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
