NE @ PIT – Week 2 2022
NE
PIT
NE
AWAY
17@14
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 56%Our line: PIT -2.2
PIT
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.2
OUR LINE
-129
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.012
-0.054Offense EPA / play+0.012
-0.089Defense EPA / play+0.024
40.9%Offense success %45.1%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but NE won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 5.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -150 | +135 |
| Our fair price | +129 | -129 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
41%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3 SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
170.1 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones2997 yd · 14 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Rhamondre Stevenson1040 yd · 5 TD
Damien Harris462 yd · 3 TD
Mac Jones102 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers67 rec · 804 yd · 6 TD
DeVante Parker31 rec · 539 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NEW3 2025 | PIT 21, NE 14 | PIT | W |
| NE@PITW14 2023 | NE 21, PIT 18 | PIT | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.2. The market has PIT at +3.0.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 21, NE 14 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against PIT -0.012.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
