Patriots vs Steelers – Week 2 2022
NE
PIT
NE
AWAY
17@14
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 17, Pittsburgh Steelers 14.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: PIT 56%Our line: PIT -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -2.2
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
41%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
| SOURCE | NE | PIT | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -150 | +135 | 41.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.012
-0.054 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (12)
-0.089 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (26)
40.9% (24)Offense success %45.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but NE won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 5.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NEW2 2026 | PIT 3, NE 20 | NE | W |
| PIT@NEW3 2025 | PIT 21, NE 14 | PIT | W |
| NE@PITW14 2023 | NE 21, PIT 18 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.2. The market has PIT at +3.0.
New England Patriots won, NE 17, PIT 14. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, PIT 3, NE 20 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against PIT -0.012.
