2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ NE – Week 3 2025
PIT
NE
PIT
AWAY
21@14
PIT +7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: PIT
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: PIT 59%Projected margin: -0.2
PIT
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-0.2
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 0.2. Actual: 7. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.81 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@PITW14 2023 | NE 21, PIT 18 | PIT | L |
| NE@PITW2 2022 | NE 17, PIT 14 | PIT | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES