Steelers vs Patriots – Week 3 2025
PIT
NE
PIT
AWAY
21@14
PIT BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 21, New England Patriots 14.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Steelers, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: PIT 59%Our line: PIT -3.2
ODDS
GAME TOTAL
PREDICTED TOTAL
45.4
VEGAS LINE
44.5
Projected by the earlier model, before the October 20 rebuild. It is not covered by the test results described for the new model.
SPREAD
PIT -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
52%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
| SOURCE | PIT | NE | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -120 | +100 | 52.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 7:59 PM ET.
RESULT Won · +$0.81
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.205
+0.025 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.158 (1)
+0.018 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.047 (11)
44.0% (17)Offense success %48.4% (3)
43.3% (13)Defense success %44.6% (18)
+0.029 (16)Pass EPA / play+0.286 (1)
+0.019 (10)Rush EPA / play+0.008 (13)
23.4 (15)Points / game28.8 (2)
22.8 (17)Points allowed / game18.8 (4)
59.5%Pass rate54.1%
66.7%Red zone TD %84.2%
19.8%4th down go %24.5%
SteelersPatriots
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 7. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NEXT GEN STATS
EXP COMP %
72.2%
Drake MayeNE
TIME TO THROW
2.45s
Aaron RodgersPIT
SEPARATION
6.9 yds
DeMario DouglasNE
RUSH EFFICIENCY
5.5
Jaylen WarrenPIT
AGGRESSIVENESS
13.0%
Aaron RodgersPIT
AVG YAC
4.2 yds
Hunter HenryNE
GREEN = ELITE VS LEAGUE
SOURCE: NFL NEXT GEN STATS
PIT ADVANCED STATS
PASSING
BAD THROW %
19.5%
DROP %
2.9%
PRESSURE %
14.4%
RUSHING
YBC/ATT
2.4
YAC/ATT
1.6
BROKEN TACKLES
42
DEFENSE
COMP% ALLOWED
67.1%
PASSER RTG ALLOWED
86.0
MISSED TACKLE %
12.7%
SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
NE ADVANCED STATS
PASSING
BAD THROW %
21.3%
DROP %
2.7%
PRESSURE %
17.0%
RUSHING
YBC/ATT
2.4
YAC/ATT
1.5
BROKEN TACKLES
39
DEFENSE
COMP% ALLOWED
68.6%
PASSER RTG ALLOWED
84.6
MISSED TACKLE %
7.5%
SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
PIT SCHEME RATES
18 GAMES
PLAY ACTION
20.7%
BLITZ RATE
31.8%
MOTION
43.1%
RPO
7.1%
SCREEN
14.3%
NO HUDDLE
9.5%
AVG PASS RUSHERS
4.4
SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON
NE SCHEME RATES
21 GAMES
PLAY ACTION
27.1%
BLITZ RATE
32.4%
MOTION
40.3%
RPO
1.3%
SCREEN
5.9%
NO HUDDLE
2.6%
AVG PASS RUSHERS
4.4
SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
NE win probability from kickoff to the final whistle, the game’s actual in-game trajectory, not our pregame pick. Source: nflfastR play-by-play
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
P.Freiermuth41 rec · 486 yd · 4 TD
C.Austin31 rec · 372 yd · 3 TD
VS
PASS yds
3,3224,394
RUSH yds
1,5641,964
REC yds
2,1942,882
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye4394 yd · 31 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
S.Diggs85 rec · 1013 yd · 4 TD
H.Henry60 rec · 768 yd · 7 TD
K.Boutte33 rec · 551 yd · 6 TD
M.Hollins46 rec · 550 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NEW2 2026 | PIT 3, NE 20 | NE | W |
| NE@PITW14 2023 | NE 21, PIT 18 | PIT | L |
| NE@PITW2 2022 | NE 17, PIT 14 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs NE
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.2. The market has PIT at -1.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 21, NE 14. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -1.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.9 above the market. That is a projection, not a pick.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, PIT 3, NE 20 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: PIT +0.007 against NE +0.205.