2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ LAC – Week 3 2025
DEN
LAC
DEN
AWAY
20@23
LAC +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LAC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LAC 59%Projected margin: 1.4
LAC
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
1.4
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 1.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW14 2023 | DEN 24, LAC 7 | LAC | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES