Broncos vs Chargers – Week 3 2025
DEN
LAC
DEN
AWAY
20@23
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 20, Los Angeles Chargers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 59%Our line: LAC -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.050 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.024 (25)
-0.088 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.083 (7)
44.2% (16)Offense success %43.1% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 3.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN | W |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.2. The market has LAC at -2.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, DEN 20, LAC 23. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 3, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 1.2 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 23, LAC 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against LAC +0.059.
