2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ LAC – Week 16 2024
DEN
LAC
DEN
AWAY
27@34
LAC +7
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 68%Projected margin: -4.4
DEN
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-4.4
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but LAC won. Projected margin was 4.4 -- the model overestimated by 11.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
157.9SEASON PPR
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW14 2023 | DEN 24, LAC 7 | LAC | L |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES