Saints vs Packers – Week 16 2024
NO
GB
NO
AWAY
0@34
GB BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 0, Green Bay Packers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Saints, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 76%Our line: GB -9.6
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -9.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.101Net EPA / play+0.146
-0.057 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (8)
+0.044 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
40.6% (23)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 9.6. Actual: 34. Off by 24.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
COLD GAME
34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
12 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@GBW3 2023 | NO 17, GB 18 | GB | W |
| GB@NOW1 2021 | GB 3, NO 38 | GB | L |
| GB@NOW3 2020 | GB 37, NO 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 9.6. The market has GB at -14.0.
Green Bay Packers won, NO 0, GB 34. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -14.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 16, the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 2.2 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Green Bay Packers, NO 17, GB 18 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: NO -0.101 against GB +0.146.
