Giants vs Falcons – Week 16 2024
NYG
ATL
NYG
AWAY
7@34
ATL BY 27
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 7, Atlanta Falcons 34.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Giants, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 74%Our line: ATL -8.7
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -8.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.170Net EPA / play-0.027
-0.107 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (13)
+0.063 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.061 (27)
40.5% (25)Offense success %48.1% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 8.7. Actual: 27. Off by 18.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NYGW3 2021 | ATL 17, NYG 14 | NYG | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project ATL by 8.7. The market has ATL at -9.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, NYG 7, ATL 34. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -9.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 16, the New York Giants were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.7, 1.2 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 17, NYG 14 in Week 3 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Atlanta Falcons: NYG -0.170 against ATL -0.027.
