Rams vs Jets – Week 16 2024
LA
NYJ
LA
AWAY
19@9
LA BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 19, New York Jets 9.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jets.
Model confidence: LA 73%Our line: LA -8.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -8.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.030Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.014 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (17)
+0.044 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
46.8% (10)Offense success %42.6% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 8.1. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
COLD GAME
23°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
23°F
WIND
8 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@LAW15 2020 | NYJ 23, LA 20 | LA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs NYJ
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project LA by 8.1. The market has LA at -3.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 19, NYJ 9. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 1.4 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, NYJ 23, LA 20 in Week 15 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA -0.030 against NYJ -0.037.
